Sunday, January 22, 2006

New World Order All Over Again.

It's clear our occupation of Iraq has vastly weakened the US in our relations with Iran. We've removed Iran's main enemies from the stage: Saddam, and replaced this with a shattered state which may become Shiite controled or a faction of which may become Shiite entirely. If you just look at the Shiite leaders (some of whom were and will be elected in a democratic process which is laughably seen by the Bush Defense League as a victory for the US), some/most have deep ties to Iran: education, political ties, family ties. Of course they do, Iran is a Shiite country by majority and by rule. Overall, we can see the unintended fallout of our invasion as increasing Iran's sphere of influence on the world stage. If they control or form strong ties with only the Shiite sections of Iraq, then this is a huge victory for them. Why? Because the Shiites will then control more oil. They can then play the US off Europe off China. Nice for them.

Too bad for us.

Its only that we are weaker, although that is certainly the case (and our present weakness is not only military. We now have credibility weaknesses - which now extend to other spheres like North Korea, moral weaknesses - rendition, torture, photo ops from Abu Ghraib, and influence weaknesses). It is also that Iran is so much stronger. They are stronger thanks to oil prices, removal of enemies, and expanding spheres of control.

Much of this has already come to pass. A Shiite majority has formed. Their leaders have strong Iran ties. Obviously they haven't established economic or political ties with Iran: Iraq is still an utter disaster and there's very little oil as of now. But otherwise, what's done is done, and what's to come in this regard is easy to see. This prognosticatication is that of observing Mo picking up a wrench and seeing Curly close at hand. Not hard to know exactly what's comming.

From there, things start to get really interesting. This is where prognostication starts.

And things get worse. Up until now, we've only mentioned the probable short term outcomes. Because what happens when Iran establishes friendly ties with Shiites in Iraq (perhaps even forming an annex, like the US to Guam or PR, or hell, just making them like Nevada)? Answer: the Saudi Shiites get happy. Presently we don't hear a lot about Saudi Shiites. Do you suppose the average American with yellow sticker on their SUV even knows if Saudi Arabia is a Sunni or Shiite country?

No way. It's not on Fox news. Why not?

Because the media (even the 'liberal' media) doesn't want to report on our friends, the Saudi's, persecution of the Shiites. Those are the US's buddies, and the US is in favor of democracy(!) - there's no way the US would support a country that makes being a Shiite a crime! Freedom's on the march! Except they (we) do support tyranny when it supports our interests. And there are good reasons for that - boiling down to oil. (And Iran has the audacity to hate the US - after all, its not US that persecutes Shiites in Saudi Arabia, its the US friends! They just hate our freedoms is all.)

Back on track. Eastern province of Saudi Arabia: a persecuted Shiite majority. Also an oil rich area. Also right next to a country presently called Iraq, which soon may go by Shiitistan. This is a setup for incredible instability in the region.

The US, knowing a Shiite controled section of oil in Iran, Iraq, and Eastery Saudi Arabia is the worst possible outcome, will do what they can to prevent it. Failing that, they will do WHATEVER it takes to stop it.

What will WHATEVER entail? Bad stuff. We've made a mess of the region, and another mess of an intervention may be required to prevent Shiite oil control. As I see it, this could be one of a few options:

1. Aid the Saudis to attack and wage genocide on the Shiites in the Eastern Province. The problem with that is that it doesn't stop Shiite control in Iraq and Iran.

2. Go to war with Iran. This may be on the table right now.

3. And I think this may be more likely: arm and train the present Sunni insurgents. Of course, we'll have to call them freedom fighters at that point, but they'll be the same people. And they'll be just as evil and horrible, except they'll be our evil and horrible people (just like Saddam was). Already, why do we think the US favors the Sunnis participation in Iraqi government? Don't Americans find this odd, since we also know that the Sunni insurgents are responsible for thousands of our soldier's lives? One reason is the hope that a Sunni in power could help deal with the insurgents. Another is to put a stumbling block in the way of the Shiites.

4. Or do the same with the Kurds, but then you'd have to convince them that they should have anything at all to do with the rest of Iraq. And the Kurd's best option is to accept partial autonomy from the Shiite majority and stay the fcuk out of Baghdad.

Notice the best 'solution' to the problem? At present, the best we can do is to promote a brutal Sunni to take power from a majority of Iraqis. That sounds a lot like Iraq in the year 2000, doesn't it? But then, of course, Iraq circa 2000 would be a qualitative improvement over Iraq circa 2005, especially considering the prospects.

I'm a doctor, but if you pay attention, you don't have to be in the CIA to diagnose these symptoms.


Blogger acumamakiki said...

You know, the ostrich with his head in the sand, while appealing just won't hold up anymore. Very few people (myself included) understands the differences between Sunni's and Shiite's and what that actually means. You watch the world news and it's obvious how weak this country has become and it's just getting weaker with that ostrich in power. I keep thinking of him sitting in his office with his eyes closed and his hands over his ears, repeating 'lalalalalalalalala' hoping it will all go away. The unfortunate thing is that he won't have to clean up his mess, just like he hasn't had to his entire life.

4:17 AM  
Blogger laurenbove said...

Well we have gotten our pants dirty now haven't we?

Typically I hate to prognosticate because it's fertile ground for the introduction of polemicism for the sake of polemicism. I'd like a rational discourse that acutally hashes out the truth but I guess if we could just do that ourselves then why wouldn't the gov't find the answer. (Unless the don't want to or don't care to) You have enumerated most of the options here.

I hope there are others.

5:35 AM  
Blogger marybishop said...

Of course I agree with everything you said. If only more people could think clearly - which would mean to dismiss lots of what we read and hear, specifically created to give us a sense of security while taking it all away.

It you haven't done so already, please read The End of Faith by Sam Harris. His perspective on the middle east is frightening...(well it's more than the middle east) but I fear he is predicting exactly what will happen in the near future.

I thought of you numerous times while reading his book...

8:44 AM  
Blogger Doc NOS said...

I haven't read Harris. I did read a review that gave him high marks.

Its probable that the blindly religious thought that goes into Bush's personal beliefs about God - as well as those around him - would be also applied to the world. Scary stuff.

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